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The Devil We Know: Dealing with the New Iranian Superpower
Download PDF The Devil We Know: Dealing with the New Iranian Superpower
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Most helpful customer reviews
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
A New Reality in the Persian Gulf
By Ralph White
Bob Baer's first book, "See No Evil," was about how the Clinton Administration failed a junior CIA operative (himself) when he had organized a home-grown Iraqi coup of Saddam Hussein. Baer attributed that failing of statecraft to the gutting of intel in the Clinton White House. The implicit argument in "The Devil We Know" is that if we'd have listened to him then, we wouldn't have had to devalue our national image by invading and occupying Iraq.
Baer goes on to make the case that our real enemies are the Sunnis. They are mindless killers and their objectives are nothing more than "confusing the enemy." By contrast, the Shia are peace-loving nationalists who have never killed (caveat: since 1988) anyone with a suicide bomb. Baer makes the case that we should ally with the Shia against the Sunnis. Giving hundreds of pages of evidence that all Shia are controlled (or disclipined) by Iran, the prescription of an alliance with the Shia implies an alliance with Iran.
Baer served his country with distinction and continues to serve it as a political analyst. But there are questions that Baer does not answer here. Perhaps he will in a forthcoming book, but they are unanswered here. Doesn't Islam require all believers to 1) attend mosque, 2) read the Koran, 3) pursue jihad. Doesn't "jihad" mean "struggling against" us, even if they are Shia? Doesn't every Muslim have the obligation to either 1) convert us, 2) extract jizya (humiliating tax) from us, or 3) kill us? Forgive me if I'm oversimplifying things, but I don't think the Shia would shy away from violent jihad against the US simply because we'd abandoned the battlefield. Why wouldn't they take it for weakness and fight all the harder against us?
It may be that the US should be more aware of the distinctions between Shia and Sunny and it may be that the Shia are slightly less homicidal, but reaching out to them as allies? Isn't Iran a theocratic regime that is governed by the Koran and the Hadith (the traditions of the Prophet)? To make a case for Iran as an ally, he has to make the case that a nation which calles us "The Great Satan," and vows to wipe Israel of the map should actually not be taken at its word. It seems reasonable to also ask if Bob Baer hasn't caught at least a mild case of what the State Department calls "clientitis." How is it that only Baer alone has seen the light?
Baer's real message is that, having removed Saddam, we've effectively handed over Iraq to Iran. A done deal. A new reality. Now we have to deal with it. And the scary thing, if you believe Baer, and I do, notwithstanding some misgivings, is that not one single senior policy maker in America knows what you will know after you close the last page of this book. Now that's frightening.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Realpolitik Persian Style
By Andrew Schonbek
In The Crisis of Islam, renowned Middle East expert and scholar Bernard Lewis writes, "Unlike revolutionary France and Russia, revolutionary Iran lacks the means, the resources, and the skills to become a major world power and threat".
Robert Baer, not an academician but rather a former CIA operative, takes a very different view in The Devil We Know, writing, "What it comes down to is this: Iran is the most powerful and stable country in the Middle East - a country the United States must either fight in a new thirty-year war or come to terms with".
If the Neocons advising the President in the run up to the Iraq war had placed less emphasis on Lewis' theory and more on Baer's practice, the outcome of events there might have been quite different.
The portrait that Baer paints of Iran flies in the face of conventional wisdom.
He writes, for example, that "Iran is not a totalitarian state run by `Islamofascists' who believe they're in some quixotic war with the West and Western civilization. President Ahmadinejad is not intent on starting World War III; he's a figurehead no more able to take Iran to war than Joseph McCarthy was able to take America to war against Communism. Iran's real leaders are rational, pragmatic, and calculating".
The Iranian goals are those of an imperial superpower. They include the following:
* Dominion over surrounding countries either directly or through proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah;
* A position of dominance in energy markets through control of shipping corridors (strategic pipelines and the Straights of Hormuz) and managing the extraction of its own reserves as well as those of Iraq and other neighboring countries;
* Control of Mecca and Medina, perhaps through a joint administration with Saudi Arabia;
* Recognition, the respect due a superpower, and internal security.
Baer argues that the Iranians are well on the way to achieving these goals, and, again contrary to conventional wisdom, that they do not need nuclear weapons to do so. In fact, one of the books more interesting chapters is entitled "Lethal and Elusive: Why Iran's Weapons and Tactics Make It Unconquerable - Even Without Nukes". In it he describes the military capabilities used by Hezbollah to deliver Israel its first ever military defeat in the Lebanese conflict of 2006. Baer places great emphasis on this writing, "There's a good argument that Iran's modernization of guerilla warfare is a military development as important as the introduction of the machine gun was to World War I or the tank to World War II".
The Iran that is described in The Devil We Know is significantly more dangerous than the caricature that most Americans have espoused. Baer argues that ultimately we will be forced to settle with the mullahs since we surely won't be able to prevail against them.
Sobering, but important material...
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Does the US Government really know the devil in this book?
By paula
I learned a lot about the Middle East and Iran. I am dismayed by the way the US deals with the Middle East and wonder why our diplomats and government do not have better insight into the Muslim world.
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